Yield to the Tablets!
"Tablet of Biblical Proportions" Photo Credit: Joe Philippon
At the 2010 CES show in Vegas HP, Lenovo and Sony tablets were announced and the recent launch of the iPad undoubtedly make 2010 the year of tablet computing. Tablet computers are hardly anything new and have been on the fringes of the computing market for years. However the early manifestations have been nothing more than miniaturized versions of their larger full sized and laptop brethren. This resulted in a poor performing micro laptops with awkward UI and less than desirable performance and high prices. So why all the buzz now? What has changed? And what does this onslaught of tablet PC’s mean?
What has changed:
Our expectations. Our ever deeper entanglement with the web for our business and personal lives demands omnipresent connectivity to the internet. Smart phones were just the start. They allow us connectivity to the web, but is the experience desirable on such a small screen? No. These new tablets are designed to be incredible windows into the internet, with a size, weight and form factor ideal to hold and carry.
Bandwidth. To be truly mobile and wire-free demands wireless internet. Because of smart phones, the cellular data networks have been forced to upgrade their infrastructure to appeal to the demand for bandwidth which allows for unprecedented speed and access for these new devices.
Purpose. We are no longer looking for high-horsepower miniature versions of our full sized workstation. What we want to do with these devices is different. Because of social media and other online environments, the web has become the catalog of our personal lives, a multimedia diary if you will. We want to take all that makes us who we are, everywhere we go. This includes our photos, videos, books (thanks Amazon), magazines, music, contacts, profiles, friends, our connection to our networks and soon, our personal AI powered assistants that gather information for us based on our interests and personalities.
Infrastructure. Access to content is only as good as the content. What is interesting here is that Apple has created a business model and infrastructure to support its content. iTunes, the App Store and now the Apple Book Store allow us to select and download virtually any kind of content. But more importantly is the business deals being developed with the content producers. This careful orchestration of content providers and a new way to access content could be a critical difference as to why these tablet devices are successful. By no means are these devices going to be the savior of a dying media, as Seth Godin notes, however it is a chance to revitalize an old business model. In fact, Amazon has already acquiesced and re-negotiate its Kindle contracts with publishers based only on the threat of a yet to be shipped device from apple.
What does the Tablet Mean:
An evolution. These new tablet computers put us one step closer to plugging ourselves into the net full-time. Yes, crazy idea of internet everywhere is a reality and in full swing, just not cost effective for the general public yet. Not sure what I’m talking about? Check out all that is happening with Augmented reality. We’re talking web enabled glasses that bring a lens to what we’re observing to the power of the web.
A splintering of the web. The days of the web creating an even playing field for organizations big and small is over. Forrester Research just published a great article on this topic which basically notes that the web has gone proprietary. It started with Flash vs. HTML and is now moving toward developing specific content and technology to work on a new family of devices, such as these new tablet computers, smart phones and beyond.
An opportunity. We are in a time of unprecedented access to broadcasting our content to the masses. Now with these specific devices and accompanying business models, there are even more channels to bring our content to the world. However, as we see more and more device specific content channels, the gate keepers of the past become relevant again, controlling the price of admission. This might exclude the average person from creating content for these platforms, however it will be our job (all of us) to put the pressure on and not return to a controlled media and content environment.
A new way to work. One of the more interesting things about these devices is a salient reason to re-invent how we interact with computers. Alternative modes of interfacing with computers beyond the mouse and keyboard have been fringe ideas at best. Now direct input through hand gestures and finger inputs are becoming ubiquitous. This quite natural way of interacting with information promises a whole new era in computing.
In Summary, I look forward to what these new devices represent and how, with power, portability and access to high-speed internet from anywhere opportunities abound for what we use them for. I encourage your commentary as these devices have deep implications for all of us.
“Tablet of Biblical Proportions” Photo Credit: Joe Philippon
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Posted by:
Brent Robertson
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brentr@fathom.net
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To speak nothing of the tremendous opportunity for industry vertical development.
We will see teachers far better able to manage class and curriculum based on new apps probably written by BlackBoard.
Medical professionals will have a great tablet to improve care.
But most of all, we can all now clearly visualize Captain Kirk acknowledging the Enterprise’s status on a tablet handed to him by a gorgeous and capable ensign.
Medical professionals and education are already taking a keen interest in these products. It might finally be the tipping point for the Electronic Medical Record.
I’d say this tablet phenomenon may take on biblical proportions.
Brent, appreciate the dialogue on Twitter, great piece here and attention-getting photo above.
Thanks Jeff, appreciate the feedback!
Nice photo. Where’d you get it.
Brent, I hear everything you’re saying and agree that the possibilities are exciting especially in ed and med but (not to be a downer) there is also a scary side to this.
So far as I can tell, advances in this kind of technology have done nothing to simplify life – in fact, just the opposite is true. In your second paragraph you use the term “deeper entanglement”. This is a perfect description of any teenager’s (the next generation of professionals) daily existence. Have you seen them clutching their phones to their chest no matter where they go? Consuming media at a rate of 10.5 hours per every seven hours of media consumption time each day!? (Source: Jan 2010 Kaiser Family Foundation: http://www.kff.org/entmedia/mh012010pkg.cfm)
Some studies suggest that they can handle this level of “entanglement” just fine and their brains are being quickly rewired to do so. Great (read sarcastically) they can accomplish tasks, maybe even memorize/study at the same time as they text and update and listen. (Other studies reveal less desirable side effects.) Is this good? Is this creating linchpins (http://surfthedeepend.net/2010/01/seth-godin-indispensable/) or robots?
What about actual thinking? Actual alone with their thoughts time? Where they consider a subject uninterrupted for a significant length of time. Where they learn about and become comfortable with themselves as individuals – with a brain and an identity separate from their technology enabled network of distractions. When will they do the hard work needed to understand and love themselves for who they are? And, of course, it’s not just teens.
My fear is that we are heading toward a world of mass psycho-interdependency where, because we are so connected, our inner individual selves get pushed farther and farther down and become indistinguishable from the group’s. Maybe we’re already there.
**Interesting observation you make about Amazon renegotiating. Here’s a good write up by Bob Lefstez (@Lefstez) on the total impact of the as yet unreleased iPad: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/index.php/archives/2010/02/03/ipad-impact/
Forrester’s points are well taken on the coming “Splinternet” age and it seems as if the iPad is confirming that reality — the fact that AT&T is the only network available and Jobs’ decision to compete in markets where he could opt to partner (i.e., Amazon) is going to have impact beyond whether or not you are the owner of an Apple product. You really need to think about your choice from all angles.
I think it’s AWESOME that our technology is amping up and we are on the verge of bringing life-changing technologies like augmented reality down to earth for us to actually put into play.
Before we get to that vision, though, I’m curious to see how the bumpy ride plays out. I won’t buy an iPad right now because it won’t replace the other devices I already cling to and I’m not ready to add another device to my collection because, for me, I’m not an early adopter. I’m kind of a “pre-teen” adopter. I have to NEED that device in order to purchase it, not just want it to play with it.
So, here’s my question: if we are in the Splinternet age where the web is creating monopolies and silos, are we also going to cause an even bigger gap with those who are not yet ready to make the leap to bigger technologies? I think there needs to be greater communication to the masses about why the tablets are revolutionary — for the reasons you all have been citing (medical, education, etc.).
In other words, let’s take the technology out of geek land! Give everyone a reason to care so that when they decide to make a choice on technology it’s not just because it’s an Apple or Sony brand. If Daddy Warbucks is going to force us to choose, it’s up to us to push back and make that choice a real choice with as few comprises as possible. We can’t do that without all the information at our hands, so I charge you early adopters: talk about the iPad and augmented reality and all that cool stuff with people who you think may not care. I guarantee you it’s because they just don’t know why to care.
Bruce, interestingly enough, there have been a bunch of recent studies suggesting that the younger generations being able to multitask (or do multiple things that use the same part of the brain) are just false, actually quite the opposite. One notable, when observing the quality of written papers by MIT students, it was observed there was no connection between paragraphs, in other words, they would write a paragraph, go off and do something else and then return and write the next. Hmmmm
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I really want one of the new IPADs, but will probably wait. I would be one of the users however that wants to use it as a power user might. For example why not be able to perform graphic design tasks with it? It would be perfect for painterly types of works. With a larger model, web design and coding could be accomplished as the larger typepad wuld make typing easier.
Well I do not typically comment on blogs but I discovered yours while I was doing a bit of job researching in Google today therefore i decided I would leave a simple note. I must admit that I’ve gotten a bit distracted going through and reading a few of your posts… I ought to probably be doing work. You have some good insights here, so I’ll add you to my personal Google Reader for the future. Cheers!
Thank you ForceFactor! We hope to keep distracting you with new posts soon.